Weak Jobs Report: Is A Recession On Its Way? | NBC News Now


NEWS THAN ANY OTHER NEWS ORGANIZATION IN THE WORLD. ORGANIZATION IN THE WORLD.>>>THE WEEK AUGUST JOBS REPORT>>>THE WEEK AUGUST JOBS REPORT OUT THIS MORNING ONE MORE SIGN OUT THIS MORNING ONE MORE SIGN THE LABOR MARKET AND U.S. THE LABOR MARKET AND U.S. ECONOMY IS LOSING STEAM. ECONOMY IS LOSING STEAM. IS A RECESSION ON ITS WAY? IS A RECESSION ON ITS WAY? WE’LL TALK ABOUT JOBS, FED, WE’LL TALK ABOUT JOBS, FED, CHINA TRADE WAR AND CAN WE AVOID CHINA TRADE WAR AND CAN WE AVOID AN ECONOMIC DOWNTURN. AN ECONOMIC DOWNTURN. JOB NUMBERS OUT THIS MORNING. JOB NUMBERS OUT THIS MORNING. WE WERE LOOKING FOR 150 K. WE WERE LOOKING FOR 150 K. THEY CAME IN LATE. THEY CAME IN LATE. CENSUS DATA IS IN THERE. CENSUS DATA IS IN THERE. SHOW US WHAT THE NUMBERS LOOK SHOW US WHAT THE NUMBERS LOOK LIKE AND HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU? LIKE AND HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU?>>A LITTLE CONCERNED.>>A LITTLE CONCERNED. THE ECONOMY CREATED 130,000. THE ECONOMY CREATED 130,000. I’M SURE AT THE END OF THE DAY I’M SURE AT THE END OF THE DAY THEY WILL SAY 1.3 MILLION. THEY WILL SAY 1.3 MILLION. THE GOVERNMENT IS HIRING THE GOVERNMENT IS HIRING TEMPORARY CENSUS WORKERS THROUGH TEMPORARY CENSUS WORKERS THROUGH 2020 TO COMPLETE THAT PORTION 2020 TO COMPLETE THAT PORTION THAT WILL TAKE A GOOD PORTION OF THAT WILL TAKE A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT YEAR. NEXT YEAR. THAT BOOSTED GOVERNMENT THAT BOOSTED GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT BY 20,000 EMPLOYMENT BY 20,000 INDIVIDUALS. INDIVIDUALS. A LITTLE MORE. A LITTLE MORE. IF YOU STRIP THOSE NUMBERS OUT IF YOU STRIP THOSE NUMBERS OUT THEN WE HAD FEWER THAN 100,000 THEN WE HAD FEWER THAN 100,000 JOBS CREATED IN THE JOBS CREATED IN THE PRIVATE-SECTOR WHICH IS A MARKED PRIVATE-SECTOR WHICH IS A MARKED DECELERATION. DECELERATION. GIVEN THE TRADE WAR, THE GLOBAL GIVEN THE TRADE WAR, THE GLOBAL RECESSION WE’RE SEEING IN RECESSION WE’RE SEEING IN MANUFACTURING IT DOES APPEAR MANUFACTURING IT DOES APPEAR THAT’S HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE THAT’S HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE U.S. BOTH IN MANUFACTURING AND U.S. BOTH IN MANUFACTURING AND IN RETAIL WHERE TARIFFS ARE IN RETAIL WHERE TARIFFS ARE STARTING TO BITE. STARTING TO BITE.>>WE HAVE A FED MEETING IN A>>WE HAVE A FED MEETING IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS. COUPLE OF WEEKS. A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK THEY WILL A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK THEY WILL CUT RATES. CUT RATES. USUALLY IT’S A QUARTER OF A USUALLY IT’S A QUARTER OF A POINT. POINT. ANY EXPECT JAYS IT WILL BE MORE ANY EXPECT JAYS IT WILL BE MORE THAN THAT. THAN THAT.>>IT’S A QUARTER OF A POINT BUT>>IT’S A QUARTER OF A POINT BUT ECONOMISTS ARE SAYING GIVEN THE ECONOMISTS ARE SAYING GIVEN THE LABOR NUMBERS OUT THIS MORNING LABOR NUMBERS OUT THIS MORNING THEY COULD GO FOR HALF. THEY COULD GO FOR HALF.>>WHY DON’T YOU WANT TO SEE AN>>WHY DON’T YOU WANT TO SEE AN INTEREST RATE CUT? INTEREST RATE CUT? WHAT DOES IT ENAMEL TO PEOPLE? WHAT DOES IT ENAMEL TO PEOPLE?>>IT’S AN ADMISSION ON THE>>IT’S AN ADMISSION ON THE FED’S PART THE ECONOMY IS FED’S PART THE ECONOMY IS SLOWING DOWN AND BEGINNING TO SLOWING DOWN AND BEGINNING TO WORRY ABOUT IMPENDING RECESSION. WORRY ABOUT IMPENDING RECESSION. [ INAUDIBLE ] [ INAUDIBLE ] CUTTING RATES THE ECONOMY IS CUTTING RATES THE ECONOMY IS STARTING TO GET BOLD. STARTING TO GET BOLD. YOU’RE WAITING FOR A GOLDILOCKS YOU’RE WAITING FOR A GOLDILOCKS SCENARIO WHERE THE ECONOMY IS SCENARIO WHERE THE ECONOMY IS JUST RIGHT. JUST RIGHT.>>THERE’S THIS BIG DEBATE OR>>THERE’S THIS BIG DEBATE OR PUSH AND PULL BETWEEN IS THE FED PUSH AND PULL BETWEEN IS THE FED THE PROBLEM, IS THE CHINA TRADE THE PROBLEM, IS THE CHINA TRADE WAR THE PROBLEM. WAR THE PROBLEM. LET’S SAY FOR EXAMPLE THEY LET’S SAY FOR EXAMPLE THEY FIGURED THIS OUT IN OCTOBER AND FIGURED THIS OUT IN OCTOBER AND THE CHINA TRADE WAR IS OVER. THE CHINA TRADE WAR IS OVER. WOULD THAT BE ENOUGH TO HELP OUR WOULD THAT BE ENOUGH TO HELP OUR ECONOMY? ECONOMY?>>HELP THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.>>HELP THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. CHINA WOULD STOP SLOWING IF CHINA WOULD STOP SLOWING IF TARIFFS CAME OFF THAT WOULD BE A TARIFFS CAME OFF THAT WOULD BE A BOOST TO GLOBAL TRADE. BOOST TO GLOBAL TRADE. WE’VE SEEN THEIR EXPORTS FALL WE’VE SEEN THEIR EXPORTS FALL OFF. OFF. OUR TRADE DEFICIT HASN’T MOVED. OUR TRADE DEFICIT HASN’T MOVED. IT WOULD BE A MAJOR MOVE AND THE IT WOULD BE A MAJOR MOVE AND THE STOCK MARKET RALLY EVEN MORE. STOCK MARKET RALLY EVEN MORE.>>FOR OUR VIEWERS WHO SAY I>>FOR OUR VIEWERS WHO SAY I DON’T KNOW THAT MUCH ABOUT DON’T KNOW THAT MUCH ABOUT ECONOMY I HAVE BASIC KNOWLEDGE. ECONOMY I HAVE BASIC KNOWLEDGE. WHAT SHOULD I BE LOOKING GOING WHAT SHOULD I BE LOOKING GOING FORWARD IN TERMS OF JOBS, TRADE FORWARD IN TERMS OF JOBS, TRADE WAR, IN TERMS OF THE FED, WHAT WAR, IN TERMS OF THE FED, WHAT SHOULD THE AVERAGE PERSON WHO SHOULD THE AVERAGE PERSON WHO DOESN’T KNOW THAT MUCH BE DOESN’T KNOW THAT MUCH BE LOOKING FOR ON EACH OF THOSE LOOKING FOR ON EACH OF THOSE THINGS AS WE GO THROUGH THE END THINGS AS WE GO THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR? OF THE YEAR?>>FOR JOBS IT’S POSSIBLE TO>>FOR JOBS IT’S POSSIBLE TO REACCELERATE. REACCELERATE. THEY WILL BECAUSE THE CENSUS THEY WILL BECAUSE THE CENSUS WORK ADD COMING IN THE NEXT WORK ADD COMING IN THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS WILL BE LARGE. SEVERAL MONTHS WILL BE LARGE. WE’LL HAVE SOME INFLATED JOB WE’LL HAVE SOME INFLATED JOB NUMBERS. NUMBERS.>>TAKE IT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT?>>TAKE IT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT?>>RIGHT.>>RIGHT. ECONOMISTS WILL STRIP THAT OUT. ECONOMISTS WILL STRIP THAT OUT. FOR THE FED THEY WILL CUT A FOR THE FED THEY WILL CUT A QUARTER OR A HALF POINT. QUARTER OR A HALF POINT. THAT WILL PROBABLY BE GOOD NEWS THAT WILL PROBABLY BE GOOD NEWS FOR THE ECONOMY AND FOR THE FOR THE ECONOMY AND FOR THE MARKETS AND ALSO MAKES HOUSING MARKETS AND ALSO MAKES HOUSING MORE AFFORDABLE BECAUSE MORTGAGE MORE AFFORDABLE BECAUSE MORTGAGE RATES RIGHT NOW ARE AT 3.5% RATES RIGHT NOW ARE AT 3.5% WOULD COME DOWN EVEN FURTHER. WOULD COME DOWN EVEN FURTHER. AS LONG AS YOU HAVE A JOB, A AS LONG AS YOU HAVE A JOB, A STEADY PAYCHECK, SOME SAVINGS IN STEADY PAYCHECK, SOME SAVINGS IN DISPOSABLE INCOME NOT MUCH WILL DISPOSABLE INCOME NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE. CHANGE.>>PEOPLE WOULD LIKE TO SEE THAT>>PEOPLE WOULD LIKE TO SEE THAT RESOLVE — RESOLVE –>>STEELWORKERS WOULD LIKE TO>>STEELWORKERS WOULD LIKE TO SEE IT RESOLVED. SEE IT RESOLVED. AUTO WORKERS WOULD LIKE TO SEE AUTO WORKERS WOULD LIKE TO SEE IT RESOLVED. IT RESOLVED. THE BIGGEST MARKET IS CHINA NOT THE BIGGEST MARKET IS CHINA NOT THE UNITED STATES. THE UNITED STATES. YOU DON’T WANT A TRADE WAR WITH YOU DON’T WANT A TRADE WAR WITH CHINA AND YOU DON’T ONE WITH CHINA AND YOU DON’T ONE WITH EUROPE OR JAPAN. EUROPE OR JAPAN. THE PRESIDENT COULD PUT TARIFFS THE PRESIDENT COULD PUT TARIFFS ON AUTOS MADE IN EUROPE. ON AUTOS MADE IN EUROPE. THAT WOULD BE DISASTROUS. THAT WOULD BE DISASTROUS. THAT WOULD THROW US INTO A THAT WOULD THROW US INTO A RECESSION. RECESSION.>>I HATE TO ASK YOU TO “FIRST>>I HATE TO ASK YOU TO “FIRST LOOK” TO YOUR CRYSTAL BALL. LOOK” TO YOUR CRYSTAL BALL. IS A RECESSION COMING? IS A RECESSION COMING?>>WE’LL CONTINUE IN THIS SLOW>>WE’LL CONTINUE IN THIS SLOW GROWTH MODE WITHOUT HAVING A GROWTH MODE WITHOUT HAVING A RECESSION. RECESSION. MY BEST CASE IS WE HAVE MY BEST CASE IS WE HAVE SOMETHING ECONOMISTS CALL SOMETHING ECONOMISTS CALL SOMETHING CALLED A GROWTH SOMETHING CALLED A GROWTH RECESSION, BELOW 2%, BETWEEN 1 RECESSION, BELOW 2%, BETWEEN 1 AND 2. AND 2. IT FEELS LIKE A RECESSION BUT IT FEELS LIKE A RECESSION BUT YOU DON’T SEE THE ECONOMY YOU DON’T SEE THE ECONOMY CONTRACT. CONTRACT. JUST TOO SLOW TO EVERYBODY’S JUST TOO SLOW TO EVERYBODY’S LIKING. LIKING. THAT’S WHAT I WORRY ABOUT MORE THAT’S WHAT I WORRY ABOUT MORE NOW THAN AN ACTUAL RECESSION. NOW THAN AN ACTUAL RECESSION. IF THE TRADE WAR GETS WORSE AND IF THE TRADE WAR GETS WORSE AND SPREAD TO EUROPE, FEDERAL SPREAD TO EUROPE, FEDERAL RESERVE FALLS BEHIND THE CURVE RESERVE FALLS BEHIND THE CURVE AND LOWERS INTEREST RATE A

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